miércoles, diciembre 13, 2006

¿De qué hablamos cuándo hablamos de libre comercio?

En el blog Economist´s View se armó un interesante debate en torno al libre comercio. El autor se pregunta si aquellos que sostienen posturas proteccionistas realmente están teniendo en cuenta a quienes se verán directamente afectados por estas medidas (por ejemplo, futuros desempleados de Wal Mart). La pregunta, a mi juicio, no está muy bien formulada, pero los comentarios que vienen después realmente valen la pena. Algunos aportes aislados:


(... la mejor intervención)

It is easy to be pro free trade, living in Los Angeles as I do, where incomes are driven upward by the ever expanding, high-value-added exports of the entertainment businesses. A never-ending California gold rush creates new riches from every hit record, tv show or movie; and steady returns from every new distribution media or channel.

It is a little tougher to be pro-free trade in Flint, Michigan.

There's a desperate need for a concrete vision of what can drive up income in vast swaths of the rustbelt, as well as much of red-state America. People want to take collective action to get something started, and "the market" is not providing investment in manufacturing or anything else, which could conceivably drive up wages and productivity in those areas of the country.

As a sop to that need, trade protection is a pretty thin broth. I don't think people are particularly eager to buy it. But, they are in need of something, some vision of a way forward.

(y acá un enfoque interesante y claramente proteccionista)

The notion that the U.S. will magically recover has not been proven, as the trade deficits continue almost unabated.

Globally competitive services are also taking some hits. And the notion that services will serve as a complete offset to production losses hasn't worked out.

I am not saying that all is lost, but the hits are large. The skill losses are serious and many take years to rebuild if ever rebuilt.

En líneas generales, todos los participantes parecen bien informados, lo que asusta aún más, dado el tono marcadamente pesimista de las intervenciones. Aparentemente los estadounidenses se perciben a si mismos en una etapa de decadencia difícil de entender para lo que la miramos de afuera.

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